Quantum computers already exist, although they are still in their infancy. Their promise reshapes our notions of speed and computational power and could upend how we protect secrets. The future in this area depends on the steps we take today.
What is quantum computing and where we are today
While classical computers work with bits 0 and 1, quantum computers use qubits, which can be in state 0, 1, and in a superposition of both at once. It is precisely this peculiar property of quantum mechanics that gives them the potential to solve selected tasks radically faster. This is not sci‑fi: devices exist, but they are extremely sensitive and technically demanding.
Quantum processors work with light and electromagnetism, with photons literally needing to be "stopped" and isolated in an environment around 15 mK – roughly 180 times colder than the cosmic background. Therefore, it is unlikely anyone will commonly own them; we are more likely to use them indirectly. Three lines of development are recognized: quantum annealing, analog quantum systems, and universal quantum computers. Today we are between the first two, and qubit counts are on the order of thousands; universal systems are not ready yet.
Breakthrough at 10 000 qubits: a world without secrets?
According to the speaker, the tipping point will be roughly 10 000 qubits: at that point, Shor’s algorithm is expected to be able to practically factor large numbers into primes. That would fundamentally undermine today’s public‑key cryptography (RSA, elliptic curves, Diffie‑Hellman), on which HTTPS, digital signatures, and key exchange rely. Even today, institutions like the NSA and DHS are warning about this and recommending a transition to new approaches, although we do not yet commonly observe "quantum attacks." The estimated horizon of 7–12 years is not tomorrow, but for planning it is essentially now – it’s the potential for "a world without secrets" if we do not prepare.
Early uses and steps worth taking today
Even at the current stage, the first practical experiments are emerging: optimization of transport and logistics, speeding up Monte Carlo simulations, or portfolio construction in finance. Some companies are trying quantum processors on hard optimization tasks with a large number of possibilities, where classical approaches tackle the problem only "one‑to‑one." Pilots are also appearing in payments and in pharmaceutical research, though it is still more laboratory than mass reality. For selected types of tasks, a quantum chip can, according to the presentation, achieve performance comparable to top supercomputers, but these are very specific scenarios.
What to do about it today? Continue with basic cyber hygiene and resilience (access management, monitoring, endpoint protection, cloud security) and at the same time start a "crypto‑inventory." Identify where you use vulnerable ciphers and keys, introduce crypto‑agility (the ability to switch algorithms quickly), and follow the proposals for post‑quantum standards published by NIST. When "tomorrow" arrives, prepared organizations will be able to transition to post‑quantum mechanisms without chaos. This is not about panic, but about sensible planning for the coming years.
