Klimatická adaptácia ako realizovateľný nástroj sa nedá vysvetliť za 10 minút

The lecture calls for replacing impressions from online discussions with hard climate data. It shows how the planet and Slovakia are warming, who emits the most today, and what that means for the energy sector. Key: plan measures for real trajectories, not wishful thinking.

From impressions to data: what drives the warming

Surface temperature measurements from the 1940s to 2024 show a long period of mild fluctuations and then a sharp rise, especially after the turn of the millennium. Natural factors were taken into account: major volcanic eruptions cool temporarily, but we do not see long-term cooling after them. Strong El Niño episodes, including 2023–2024, bring temporary warming, but the amplitude was no higher than in 2015–2016, so another, more persistent driver must be at work. Moreover, solar activity varies in cycles and is currently trending downward, which by itself would not explain the record temperatures.

A look at emissions over time is also fundamental. The median of cumulative greenhouse gases since 1850 falls in 1984: half were emitted up to that year and the other half from then to the present. Older emissions have been largely absorbed by nature; the problem is the steep increase after 1984. The data thus point to the dominant influence of human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels.

Slovakia by the numbers and scenarios to the end of the century

For Slovakia, average annual temperatures and a 10‑year moving average are available up to 2022, compiled based on one of the available climate models. IPCC projections (Sixth Assessment Report) work with multiple trajectories: if the world were to achieve carbon neutrality only around 2075, warming at the end of the century would be roughly around 2,6 °C. Maintaining today’s emission levels could push it to about 4,5 °C, and along the worst red trajectory the temperature increase would be even more pronounced. The last 12 months have already crossed the 1,5 °C threshold, so it is sensible to prepare strategies for 2,5 to 3 °C, not for ideal scenarios.

Where emissions are born and what to do about it in energy

Global emissions rose by roughly 1,1 % between 2022 and 2023, while the European Union fell, but India offset this decline in absolute terms. BRICS countries today generate roughly half of global emissions and their share is rising, while the USA and the EU are declining. A “Pareto-like” rule also applies: about 20 countries account for around 80 % of emissions, while the remaining 157 countries account for only about a fifth. The power generation sector, according to the UNFCCC, represents about 38 % of global emissions, and it is growing rapidly in BRICS.

Slovakia’s power sector, however, is among the low‑emission ones: the current mix consists of over 84 % low‑carbon sources and in October 2024 reached about 86 %, mainly thanks to nuclear and hydro, supplemented by photovoltaics and biomass. As of 18 October 2024, our system emission factor was about 54 g CO₂ per kWh, i.e., a value comparable to photovoltaics, while extensive battery backups can increase this factor in aggregate. Commissioning Mochovce 4 would reduce it even more significantly, and it holds that the greenest energy is the energy we do not need at all. Alongside emission reductions (mitigation), we therefore need to systematically build adaptation to the changes already under way, because reality will follow data, not wishes.

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